Deterrence is at best an art rather than a science. More realistically it is a strategy that depends on guesswork. Success is inherently uncertain. Why? Because in order to work as intended some culturally alien politicians must decide that they are deterred. They are quite at liberty to decide that they are not.
In short, the merit in a strategy of deterrence can only be decided abroad. This elementary truth is easily obscured by casual references to ‘the deterrent’, e…
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